Not for Wool, or Fish, but for Oil, Latin America Stands Together

The last time the Union of the Provinces of the River Plate actually governed the Islas Malvinas was from 1820-1833, but they only installed a Governor for the Islands in 1829. Twenty eight years ago there was an long diplomatic negotiation which had been going on before on the 2 April the Argentine army invaded.

Therefore the fact that Hugo Chávez the Venuzuelan President and other Latin American leaders have back Argentina and are heading to the UN is a throw back to the 70s and early 80s. Chávez and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner the Argentine President wouldn't have been a main concern to the UK Citizens on the Falklands but when Brazil and Chile are also backing calls for a return of sovereignty. The fact is that in 1820 the Islands only became of interest to some men of the Union of the Provinces due to a French wreck on the shores. Even those early claimants were aware of a conflicting claim of Britain to the islands, whose garrison had departed in 1776 because of the American War of Independence.

Of course we long expected that more wars over oil and then war could erupt. Most people thought these would centre on the Middle East or Central Asia. Now it appears that the South Atlantic has come into play. One of the lest fought over units on a Risk board but an area of many incursions from Argentina over recent history.

Almost 30 years ago it was just a case of Argentina against the UK, although some other nations provided logistical support. This time it appears that the whole continent has reared it heads. Mind you last time it was mainly about sheep and the self determination of the people who shepherded those sheep, this time there is the inclusion of oil into the equation.

In 1983 the people of the Falklands were granted full British citizenship, though in 1989 there was a UN resolution passed for the two nations to discuss the sovereignty of the islands, though despite diplomatic relations being restored such talks have never taken place.

Time for the Rich to Heed Africa

The African countries have walked out of the Copenhagen talks because of the lack of movement from the industrialised countries to take responsible action now, beyond the Kyoto measures. The formal talks are currently therefore in suspension.

The African nations are amongst those that are liable to feel the first major effects of any catastrophic climatic change. That is if they are already not suffering from this. Around 200 activists in the hall started to shout "We Stand for Africa - Kyoto Targets now" when news of the African unrest that the Danes hosting the summit were about t0 sideline an extension of emission cuts under Kyoto.

The EU and other developed countries were discussing a new agreement out of Copenhagen, but the African countries were fearful that the gains made under Kyoto in 1997 would be swept aside as a result. The US commitment to 3% under its 1990 level while a big move from where they currently are is one of the prime examples of a behind Kyoto agreed levels. As this has come from one of the biggest producers of CO2 the need for change here is at its most critical. In the eyes of Africa the rich and greedy nations of the world are not doing enough to help alleviate their painful future.

Africa is speaking up because their survival is most at risk by the dolittle's of the industrialised nations. They know the need of radical reform first hand, they are now crying out for it. They are no longer prepared to be walked over as a great price of what is at stake is known to them, it is not just a mild irritating increase in temperature to them, but a real danger that they will never be able to feed their own people as a result.

Israel Unhappy as UK Correctly Fails to Oppose Resolution

The UN is on the point of getting tough on Israel over the Gaza offensive against Hamas earlier in the year, but Israel are threatening to pull out of the Middle East peace plan as a result.

The UN Human Rights Council are on the point of endorsing a report which condemns Israel of war crimes over its Palestinian neighbours in Gaza in January. The vote on the Goldstone Report is to take place in Geneva today, condemns both Hamas and Israel but the latter most for targeting civilians in the conflict in which 1000 Palestinians died compared to 13 Israelis. It calls for both sides to hold its own investigations within six months or face referral to the International Criminal Court.

Binyamin Netanyahu, the Israeli Prime Minister, is not happy either with the UKs decision to abstain on the vote or with the possibility of their soldiers facing charges of war crimes. He has made it clear that in his opinion no Israeli soldier or official will be prosecuted for war crimes over the offensive Speaking the Knesset he said:

"Israel will not take risks for peace if it can't defend itself."

The wording of the resolution had still to be resolved last night but barring the inclusion of Israel's right to self defence the UK and other EU countries are poised to abstain.

Netanyahu has been on the phone to Gordon Brown urging his UK opposite number to oppose the motion. In the "robust exchange" Netanyahu pleaded for the UK to oppose the motion or else it would derail the peace process. But Brown has returned back that if the authorities in Israel carry out their own investigation as laid out they can avoid censure.

As I blogged at the time action needs to be taken in this situation, Robert Frost may well have written "good walls make good neighbours" the problem with the Israeli walls is that they are bad walls and encroaching into their neighbours territory stealthily trying to grab back what was once theirs. I'm glad that the UN appear to be finally ding something about it and are recognising that Israel aren't entirely blameless, while they do have a right to self-defence they should not be the aggressor, act over proportionately, target civilians and crush/choke the life out of their opponent beyond the point of submission. It really is time for Netanyahu to face up to the facts that in January his commanders overstepped the mark.

Yigal Palmor, the Israeli Foreign Ministry said that adoption of the resolution would wreck the peace process: "It will make it impossible for us to take any risks for the sake of peace. What sort of peace process will there be?"

To be honest I think Israel really needs to reach forward a hand of friendship and settlement with its Arab neighbours to maintain a long term peace rather than reach for the sabre at every opportunity. The best first line of self-defence is not to have to in the first place. So to answer Mr Palmor I'd think there would be a far more constructive and sustainable peace.

Paddy Ashdown: The World Will Never be the Same

Yesterday evening Paddy Ashdown gave a lecture at Edinburgh University entitled The World will never be the Same.


There was poetry, a song, accents of Northern Ireland and Somerset, an Afghan war revisited, Bosnia and Herzagovina, China, Obama, India and Africa all visited. Plus the introduction of Ashdowns 3rd Law*. There was also a look at the cover (the inside is embargoed) of his new Autobiography A Fortunate Life which two lucky people will be winning a signed copy of. However, after retiring from the campus to a Indian meal with the man himself, some of the students, Fred Mackintosh and Simon Clarke, then moving on for a few drinks after Paddy had left I didn't get around to writing this up until now.

The Scotsman reporter who was present gave a brief overview. This is my recollections with the aid of my copious notes of what was said.

On the idle hill of summer,
Sleepy with the flow of streams,
Far I hear the steady drummer
Drumming like a noise in dreams.
Far and near and low and louder
On the roads of earth go by,
Dear to friends and food for powder,
Soldiers marching, all to die.

From On the Idle Hillside A.E. Houseman 1896

Paddy started by telling us that after periods of stability we often tend to end up in periods of conflict and blood. (Well actually he started with some light hearted banter about introductions but the crux of the matter was as stated). There is a shift of power from the West to the East that is coming. There are things in the economic instability in the West that mean a that the West cannot achieve a solution by themselves.


There is the beginning of a sea change of economic power. China will be going through the turmoil from being a Liberal Economy to being a liberal society. China has gone through such changes in the past and to ignore the possibility that they are capable of doing so again in disingenuous. India and others in Asia will also rise up as economic powers as the West lies helpless from its own excesses.


Some will say that the American economy has gone past its zenith and is in decline. But those that show resistance to change are those that have past their zenith. America over the past 40 years has shown that that they are still open to change but Europe is faltering on this score. For the next 10-15 years Paddy said he sees the USA as still being the most powerful nation in the world, but after then what?


We're moving away from the premise of having a single Super Power to having different centres growing, more in line with Europe’s 19th Century Concert of Power. When there five great powers who between them, mainly because of the UK, kept the peace more or less in tact. The European existence as a prime mover on the world stage is also something that is liable to be diluted as the new powers come to the fore. You only have to look at how the Obama regime started out with its foreign policy. Paddy said they looked across the Atlantic [sic] to Japan and Hillary went to China these are relationships that are seen as important to the USA now. Of Europe of course Britain is still the pre-eminent but what of the rest. They are losing their significance as Obama and America are looking at how best to effect the change that the world can believe in.

Of those emerging there is an assertive Russia, a rising China and a prospering India. Of these Russia's strength is also their biggest weakness. Paddy said that their criminality and acceptance of criminality was potentially their undoing. They also don't have the population to man their domain, let alone defend it and are heading back to be like the 19th century feudal Russia.

Now as never before power is shifting not just laterally but also vertically. Out of the institutions. Unto the global space. But the global space is a lawless space we do not have the means in place to control what happens in that global space. Lawless spaces always help the powerful for a bit. Our multinationals have taken advantage of this but eventually the lawless space becomes more helpful to the destroyers. International terrorism, international criminality these are things that use the prosperous for their own devices then retreat back into that lawless space where they cannot be touched. As Paddy pointed out 89% of the funds that went to fund the 9/11 attacks had passed through the institutions that had offices housed in the Twin Towers.

We are heading to another time of change like in the middle of the 19th Century. The Liberals in Britain foresaw that and brought in the 1832 Reform Act to allow for that power shift in the UK. Unlike our European neighbours, this ended up resulting in the 1848 revolutions. Governance of that global space is the challenge of this age. We need to establish institutions to bring law to that global space. If we fail the consequences are going to be like nothing never seen before.

However, it may not happen through the UN institutions. Good though it has been in maintaining some semblance of peace over the last 50-60 years is it not good at taking executive and swift action. Treaty based organisations may be the way forward. Organisations like the World Trade Organisation working for trade, Kyoto working for the climate, the expansion to the G8 to the G20, the World Bank and International Monetary Fund. All of these are treaty based organisations that have and are seeking to make a change.

(Personal comment here)

Next week as the G20 meets in London the anti-globalisation protestors are going to argue that the big businesses move into the global space, which Paddy has talked about, has been a bad thing. They are ignoring that fact that many of our issues are no longer confined to national boundaries and therefore there is a need to work across those arbitrarily draw lines in the sand. But more of that is a bit back to Paddy.

(Go on Paddy)

Not just is our power globalised but so are our problems too. In Africa Oxfam say 16m people currently live in uninhabitable space. They rely on aid from those of us who have to allow them to carry on existing in those spaces. However, with the credit crunch how much of that aid will be cut leading to starvation. If global warming continues the amount of habitable space in the region shrinks many more will come to rely on those limited sources of aid. Worldwide there is estimated to be 50m people living in uninhabitable space.

We are living in a completely interdependent world. Lehman Brothers collapses and the world economy spirals out of control as a result. We are more connected now than at any time in history both internally and externally.

The world now operates as a network. The structures we have created thus far are vertical but the reality is that our connectivity in networked and interlinked. This is why those structures we currently have in place have been unable to cope.

Twenty or thirty years ago when you were talking about defence you knew who to turn to the MoD. But now the defence minister has to be interconnected. He has to talk to the Dept. of Health about the threat of a pandemic being released, the Dept. of Agriculture about the security of our food, Industry about our companies and businesses being infiltrated, the Home Office because of our connection to so many through immigration. The capacity of our country to make us secure depends on everything being able to connect.

Paddy asked us if we knew of Lord Roberts of Kandahar. There were nothing but blank stares. Roberts was the man who in 1879, some 30 years after the massacre in Kabul, led the British force in to Afghanistan. It was one of the few successful campaigns by anyone into the Afghan lands. But in those 30 years the preparation had been laid, mainly through working to bring together the tribal forces in the Helmand provinces.

Accounts of his exploits don’t mention the importance of the poppy fields. They were there but they weren’t the issue. No was there mention the need to suppress of mad Jihadists living in caves in the southern hill country, though there was also one of those the Wali of Swat. Nor was there concern of collateral damage, though there was plenty of that two, it wouldn’t get reported back home for 6 weeks.

The important lesson from that parallel to today in its not what you do that matters but what you do with others. This Paddy said was Ashdown’s third law.

The age of unilateralism is over, George W. Bush tried it and we have seen where that left him. We have a need to reach out for new allies and some of those will be uncomfortable, but we need to work with them, make compromises and work for the common good. One of those we will need to work with is Iran. The key to the solution in Afghanistan is not our western allies but moderate Muslims. 25% of Afghanistan is of the Shia sect so we will need to get moderates from Iran the epicentre of Shi-ites. The phrase that we use that we are protecting our values ignores the facts that Christianity, Judaism and Islam share many of the same values.

"No man is an island, entire of itself; everyman is a piece of the continent, a
part of the main. If a clod be washed away by the sea,Europe is the less, as well
as if a promontory were, as well as if a manor of thy friend's or of thine own
were: any man's death diminishes me, because I am involved in mankind, and
therefore never send to know for whom the bells tolls; it tolls for
thee."

John Dunne from Devotions upon Emergent Occasions 1624

Paddy then moved on to talk a little about what he is currently doing in Northern Ireland. He’s working with Sinn Fein and the DUP and others in trying to resolve the contentious issue of parades. The thing about what is happening in Northern Ireland that is different from the Israeli/Palestinian issue and the fundamentalist Muslims and the West is that both parties have realised they have a shared destiny. There is something there they need to work at. Israel need to realise that and progress will not be made until they remove the occupation settlements from Palestinian territory which make it impossible for a Palestinian state to operate even if other things weren’t in its way. Cross all the main roads and access points is a mean of subverting that ability to reach for a shared destiny.

He finished he talk near the heart of Midlothian quoting the words of another great Liberal spoken not too far away in Dalkeith during his 1879 Midlothian Campaign.

"Remember that the sanctity of life in the hill villages of Afghanistan
among the winter snows, are as sacred in the eye of Almighty God as are your
own. Remember that He who has united you together as human beings in the same flesh and blood, has bound you by the law of mutual love, that that mutual love
is not limited by the shores of this island."

William Ewart Gladstone

*Nobody in questions afterwards dared ask about one and two.

This Langauge is Dead - UNESCO

Not it's not! It's just had a nap.

That was the response from Cornwall and the Isle of Man to the United Nations Atlas of World Languages in Danger which branded both Cornish and Manx Gaelic as extinct, ex-languages, no more, gone to.....

OK you catch my drift.

Cornish may well have been dead in 1777 as a first language bit linguists claim that it is a language in revival over the past 20 years now with about 300 fluent speakers.

Meanwhile on the Isle of Man the language the UN claims died out in in 1974 when Ned Maddrell fell forever silent. However, the island claims there are 600 speakers of the language amongst it 80,000 residents. There is even a Manx language primary school of 50 pupils Bunscoill Gaelgagh.

Unesco admitted that certain languages shown as extinct in its atlas are being actively revitalized, and could once again become "living languages".

However, the label of extinct has angered my fellow Gaels in both regions. Jennifer Kewley-Draskau, author of the handbook Practical Manx said:

"Unesco ought to know better than to declare Manx a dead language.

"There are hundreds of speakers of Manx and while people are able to have productive conversations in the language then it is very much alive and well."

Of Cornish Jenefer Lowe, development manager of the Cornish Language Partnership added:

"Saying Cornish is extinct implies there are no speakers and the language is dead, which it isn't.

"Unesco's study doesn't take into account languages which have growing numbers of speakers and in the past 20 years the revival of Cornish has really gathered momentum.

"There's no category for a language that is revitalised and revived. What they need to do is add a category. It should be recognised that languages do revive and it's a fluid state."

Oh course I never really wanted to be a blogger writing about the extinction or otherwise of Gaelic languages. I always looked the sun on my back, the wind in my hair and the smell of trees. Cause I really wanted to be a lumberjack but that is something completely different.

Gaza: UN Calls Halt While America Procrastinates

The UN Security Council has passed a resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire and the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza.

The resolution is also looking for unimpeded humanitarian access and intense diplomatic efforts for peace. The UN Aid agency Unwra has already had to withdraw its aid to the Palestinians during the 13 day conflict because although the Israeli army know of the locations of their operations and co-ordinates with their movements Unwra installations have been hit. One of their workers was killed yesterday and two injured yesterday when their fork lift truck was fired on by an Israeli tank at the Erez border crossing in the north of the Gaza strip. The International Red Cross is also accusing Israel of not assisting wounded civilians affected by their attacks and incursions.

With 770 Palestinians dead (independent observers saying upwards of 300 being women and children) to 14 Israelis the UN has recognised Israel as the aggressor in breaking the 3rd ceasefire since the turn of the millennium Egypt is trying to broker a long term and permanent ceasefire.

America were the lone abstention on the vote in the Security Council with Condoleezza Rice saying they wanted to see the outcome of those Egyptian efforts. So why the reluctance to call for a ceasefire, withdrawal and sitting on the fence? It isn't so much a positive abstention as a continuation of America's cowardly hand in this situation. America want to be the world's peacemakers, peacekeepers, but when it is one of their allies that breaks the peace they do not want to appear to be coming down too hard. The Bush Administration history in the region is liable to end with this chapter, this abstention. With the humanitarian crisis plain to all to see it was cowardly of the US not to back this end to hostilities.

Why is it important to wait and see the outcome of mediation efforts in the words of Rice when innocent civilians and even aid workers are suffering. The diplomatic terms she used to explain her do not hide the fact that the US were prepared to do nothing, just yet. Didn't feel an urgency to call a halt.

The resolution does say there is a need to look at the smuggling of weapons into Palestine, the border crossings controls of Israel into Gaza and humanitarian aid. There was acknowledgement that both sides need to make efforts. It wasn't a one sided totally anti-Israel as some have said but realised the immediate goal and necessity whilst setting out the longer term goals.

Vatican Backs Death to Homosexuals

I've altered the title slightly from Malc to whom a hat tip is due. But the impact is the essence of the story.

The Vatican are mixing up a decriminalisation of homosexuality with a move to civil partnerships or even same sex marriage it would seem. They are opposing a UN resolution calling on all Governments worldwide to "decriminalise" homosexuality.

The resolution is merely aimed at the 80 countries who outlaw same sex-relations in all circumstances, and the 9 states or regions within a state where the mandatory sentence for being homosexual is the death penalty. Indeed the draft resolution makes no mention of the Churches main concern, as cited my Archbishop Celestino Migliore, same-sex marriage that is not on the agenda merely the upholding of human rights for all. Rama Yade the French Minister of Human Rights and Foreign Affairs is raising this draft resolution on behalf of the EU, of whom the French currently hold the rotating Presidency, along with violence against women before the General Assembly of the UN when they meet between December 15th and 20th.

Sadly the church of Rome cannot discern what is an act of basic human rights, that to live or be free, from its own prejudices.

Mugabe Not Recognised

Britain has used the strongest language yet about the recent goings-on in Zimbabwe by not recognising the legitimacy of Robert Mugabe as President elect. Paddy Ashdown has warned that Zimbabwe could descend into another Rwanada if the attacks on MDC supporters continues and heads towards genocide. Morgan Tsvangirai has sought refuge in the Dutch Embassy in Harare following his stepping aside from the presidential rerun, while his supporters at the MDC headquarters were rounded up and detained.

There are moves afoot at the world level, the UN Security Council have said that a free and fair presidential run-off vote on Friday would be "impossible".
This statement had much earlier been a more strongly worded draft from the UK but the fact that South Africa, China and Russia joined in an unanimous Security Council condemnation of Robert Mugabe is a positive step. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon had earlier called for the elections to be postponed. So the UN has recognised the "campaign of violence against the political opposition", "the killing of scores of opposition activists and other Zimbabweans, and the beating and displacement of thousands of people, including many women and children."

So what next? If God doesn't intervene with Mugabe might the UN? Lord Ashdown has said that military intervention 'might' be justified at this stage to stop the Zanu-PF backed militia from their regime of terror and intimidation of the people of Zimbabwe. What Other sanctions may be brought to bear? Can these bring about freedom and fairness without hindering the people who are already suffering.

Don't Forget Zimbabwe

The opposition parties in Zimbabwe have appealed to the UN Security Council for help. It calls amidst calls by Zimbabwe human rights groups that in rural areas violence is being used on behlaf of Robert Mugabe's Zanu-PF party in an attempt to rig the re-run of the Presidential election.

The UN's Under-Secretary for Political Affairs, Lynn Pascoe fears Zimbabwe is in the midst of its worst humanitarian crisis since independence. Where violence and food are being used as political weapons.

Tendai Biti, Secretary General of the main opposition (or should that be Government by now) Movement for Democratic Change, is hoping that as a result the UN will send an envoy to Zimbabwe as soon as possible. This beggars the question why haven't the UN done something like that before now.

At Last Some Regional Pressure on Mugabe

It has been a while in coming. Possibly cause many have deeper links with the Mugabe regime than they are prepared to admit in polite society.

But at least one of the countries of Southern Africa has called on Zimbabwe's Election commission to release the results of last month's Presidential Elections. It follows a special session of the UN Security Council yesterday chaired my South African President Thabo Mbeki. So his call for the results to be declared as soon as possible is the first call from within the African Union to avert a potential crisis like that which occurred in Kenya earlier following their disputed election results.

South Africa has been the quiet mediator in recent weeks and South African government spokesman admits that his country's position has not 'been coming out as clearly as it should.' Hopefully now that President Mbeki has made his statement the region to start to bring some pressure to bear on Mugabe and Zanu-PF to bring to a conclusion the secrecy regarding the result, which somebody somewhere must have some knowledge of after all this time.

Beckett in Half Way Half Hearted Appeal

So Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett is protesting about the use of Prestwick Airport as a layover for arms on route from the USA to Isreal. However, she is prpepared to call for an immediate ceasefire in the region to allow agencies to get supplies through to the civilians who have been struggling since the Isreali attacks on Lebanon started over 2 weeks ago.

This government appears to be trying to play it both ways not wanting to help add to the destruction of Lebanon and Gaza yet at the same time not standing up to the disproportionate attacks Isreal has made on two of its neighbours. The whole area is threatening to implode and the King Abdullah has sent out a warning that the entire region may be on the brink of war.

Strangely Tony Blair's government claim they wanted to get UN backing before esending troops into Iraq but now do not seem to be prepared to listen and back the UN when it calls for a ceasefire.

The question has to be asked does Tony Blair respect the authority of the UN? On the eveidence of the last few years the answer would appear to be no. Unfortunately a sad, tragic and scarey conclusion for our country.

UN Observers Killed in South Lebanon

Isreal and UN Secretary General Kofi Annan are at odd following the death of 4 military observers when their observation post was hit by a Isreali air strike.

Apparently the observation post had already been shelled 14 times before the final destruction killed the UN officials from Austria, Canada, China and Finland. The rescue team that tried to clear the rubble were also shelled. This lead Kofi Annan to claim that the Isrealis had been deliberately targetting this observation post, something that the Isrealis have denied.

However, seeing as Unifil have been operating in the area since 1978 surely the location of their observation posts should have been well know to the Isreali military. So to have 16 attacks on the same location must either be down to very poor armaments or poor intelligence or a deliberate attack.

The first looks unlikely. If it is the second then there should be a immediate cessation of all military action from Isreal as they have been taking out other civilian targets. If it is the last and a deliberate attack against the UN and the resolutions which control action in the region Isreal have stepped over the line and can expect to be hauled back forcible. The language used by Mr Annan suggests that is not too far away.

All the while our Prime Minister seems more concerned about junk foodies and smokers at home than making a statement on the latest international crisis.

Ming on the Middle East

Sir Menzies Campbell in today's Guardian offers a voice of reason to George W. Bush's posturing.

How can the leader of the free world say that OK you can carry on for a week but after that we'll need to look at it again, when he himself is weilding his might in Iraq, Afghanistan and threathening others with force? Looks like Syria is now on Bush's radar along with Iran and North Korea.

In added his voice to UN Calls for a ceasefire Ming is evenhanded in apportioning blame for the latest eruption of violence:

The indiscriminate firing of rockets into Israel by Hezbollah is wholly unacceptable, as is the targeted destruction of the infrastructure of Lebanon by the Israeli Government.

Yet while he recognises that Isreal has a right 'to live in peace within recognised and secure borders' he is saying that people in authority including the Foriegn Secretary are not doing enough to condone the disproportionate action being taken.

While Isreal has taken illegal military action, Hamas and Hezbollah equally are detailing Isrealis without authority. Ming also quite rightly points out that all this unrest in the region is liable only to strengthen the militants which in the long term will only make Isreal feel even more insecure.

Sadly neither Bush nor the UK Government seem prepared to point out to Isreal that if they are looking for peace they have to be actively seeking it rather than hoping for it to emmerge from the embers and rubble. Ming sums this up in his conclusion:

The priority must be to ensure an immediate ceasefire. It is only once a ceasefire has been delivered that we can look towards solutions. Long-term solutions should be delivered through a regional conference...that engages all the states in the region.

Torture Awareness Month

June 26th is the day the United Nations has designated the International Day in Support of Survivors and Victims of Torture. A number of organisations have joined with TASSC International to set aside this month as Torture Awareness Month.

While a lot of this action is targetted against the US Government the fact that Tony Blair has been aiding George Bush with flights through UK airports has aided the US in extraordinary rendition and in outsourcing torture.