It appears that both Calum Cashley and Jeff have got some bee in their bonnet today over Edinburgh South's electoral chances. So lets us look at some facts.
In 2005 there were 405 votes in this seat.
The party in second was the Lib Dems.
It is Labour's ninth most vulnerable seat.
It is also the second smallest margin that Lib Dems need to take of any seat in the UK and their number one target off Labour. Therefore with Labour on the slide and the Tories on the up a universal swing makes it the Lib Dems first gain.
In 2007, when as good Nats Calum and Jeff will tell you the Lib Dems had a bad night, Edinburgh South was one of the exceptions. Mike Pringle (Lib Dem) increased his majority from 158 in 2003 to 1,929*. A swing from Labour to the Lib Dems.
In both Edinburgh South and Edinburgh Pentlands (which lends part of its territory to Edinburgh South for Westminster) both in numeric and share the Lib Dem vote across these constituencies actually went up greater than that of the Tories from 2003 to 2007. This was with both the Tories and Nats on a high.
In the interim the Lib Dems had challenged in Edinburgh South and the Tories talked the talk and trailed home a dismal 3rd, considering the amount spent, probably saving Nigel Griffiths bacon in the process.
There is only one party that is and will challenge (and more than likely be victorious) in Edinburgh South at any point between now and May 2010 when a General Election has to be called. The evidence is there and it is the Lib Dems. Don't be fooled by the Nats and their buddies the Scottish Conservative and Nationalist Party.
Update 23 October: I notice this morning that Cameron Rose the Tory Councillor for the Southside and Newington ward has joined in. He is quite happy to hype up the SNP take on things while talking about the 'discussion' Edinburgh South has taken up in the Blogosphere, while ignoring the other side. Of course there is no need to wonder why, Calum and Jeff were both handing the seat over to the Tories after all.
5 comments:
Miaow.
Just a couple of things to add to your crunching there Stephen. In 2005, the Lib Dems got a swing of 5%... the Tories 7.5% and increased their vote by 4,000. Yes the Tories were nowehere in 2007 - but the tactical vote was split three ways...
And Jeff has a point - Marilyne MacLaren has to be one of the most disliked councillors in Scotland!
So don't count your seats before they hatch - or something.
Well as Marilyne is not standing next time that is added bounce to the equation then by your argument Malc.
As for the Tories that took them to their 1992 level of votes when the constiuency was smaller. Their result in 2007 is also on comparible poll rating between the two of us as now, when Jeff points to the PoliticsHome link.
I'm merely pointing out as Jeff has so often asked me to where the trend bucking actually happens. Basically raw data isn't the only thing that puts seats into the win column. Call this a case study.
She's still a councillor in what is hardly the most liked administration... which may also dent your vote - call it split on that. Who is standing?
And you don't have to point out to a PhD student that raw data is not the only thing that should be analysed!
Plus I was just adding more information for the "casual reader" to make up their own mind...
Fred McIntosh
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