Wednesday, March 01, 2006

My Predictions

For some reason I’ve been unable to post my predictions on the Apollo Project. So now that voting has closed here are my predictions.

1. Total number of votes cast 68%:

2. First preference votes cast for Ming Campbell 36%:

3. First preference votes cast for Chris Huhne 31%:

4. First preference votes cast for Simon Hughes 33%:

If no candidate scores 50%+ on the first round, the candidate with least 1st preferences will be excluded, and their 2nd preferences re-distributed accordingly.

What do you think will be the result in this final round? (Tip: put 0% next to whichever candidate you think will lose in the first round.)

5. Second round votes cast for Ming Campbell 49%:

6. Second round votes cast for Chris Huhne 0%:

7. Second round votes cast for Simon Hughes 51%:

My reasons for this prediction is that a number of the electorate have probably not been engaged by other polling sources and will go for the names they know, sorry Chris. Only if the turnout is less than 50% which I doubt will be the case to I think Chris will have swayed enough active members to eliminate Simon on first round.


Peter Pigeon said...

A brave call, Stephen. If you are right, I hope you have a fiver riding on it!

(I think for a gambler there is value in the odds on Simon.)

Dunno why you can't comment on the Apollo Project though.

Stephen Tall said...

Stephen - I've copied 'n' pasted your prediction into Apollo.

cheers, stephen

Edis said...

I think you may be right to the extent that people who haven't seen a lot of the candidates will tend to chose between Ming and Simon and that Chris will do better amongst those who have seen them all. However I think Chris' second preferences would break strongly towards Ming.

Stephen Glenn said...

Peter, I have a small part of my winnings on Dunfermline in the result. Couldn't get as good odds though.

Thanks Stephen, I tried everything.

Edis I'm not so sure, but then I've been trapped up in Soctland fighting a by-election. However, if there is some anyone but Ming support here in Ming's own base it will have less pull elesewhere possibly. Oh well only 25 hours until we know.


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