Friday, February 10, 2006

If Dunfermline Spells a Canada Moment

I know the next General Election is a long way off but I just loved this post by Dan on Political Betting:

Based on the vote changes in the Dunfermline and West Fife by-election, here are the results of a General Election:

Liberal Democrat Majority 140

L D 38.24% 393 MPs
Con 30.74% 220 MPs
Lab 19.30% 1 MP

Now that is startlingly like the Canada result of 1992 that almost wiped out their Conservatives.

Although using the Baxter formula a later poster got the result of:

LD … 35.87% … 341
Con … 30.73% … 250
Lab … 19.39% … 21

Still very good.

Total fantasy? Probably, but it shows that the glass ceiling is breakable. Now we need some excellent candidates from all walks of British life.

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