Lies, Damn Lies and Tory Crime Statistics*

Working as I do with data day in and day out the one thing you learn is that you have to compare like with like to get an actual comparison. There are little comments all over our spreadsheets which say when something started, moved or a calculation was changed. It not simply for us to keep a track on changes but also so that we know if data from different periods is comparable simply from the raw figures.

In 2002 what happened with violent crime statistics was that instead of the incident being recorded as violent at the discretion of the desk sergeant police were told to record every complaint.

This is what Chris Grayling the Shadow Home Secretary failed to tell us when he was whipping up a storm with his some British town's as becoming like The Wire.

Sir Michael Scholar, chairman of the UK Statistics Authority sets the wayward Tory right by writing to him saying:

"I do not wish to become involved in political controversy but I must take issue with what you said about violent crime statistics, which seems to me likely to damage public trust in official statistics."

He included a note from his agency which said:

"It would not be appropriate for the Authority to seek to intervene in political debate directly. However, where we see that official statistics have been presented or quoted in a way that seems likely to mislead the public, we will publicly draw this to the attention of those involved."

Here are the actual figures, there is a kink up in 2002-3 and then the downward trend continued under the new recording criteria.

Grayling has said he would take the Statistics Authority memo into account, before then dismissing it totally by saying he would:

"continue to use recorded crime statistics, because they reflect an important reality; that the number of violent crimes reported to police stations, and particularly serious violent crimes, has increased substantially over the past decade, even taking into account any changes to data collection".

* There was just no way to top The Independent's headline.

Three Shot Dead in Tel Aviv Gay Club

22:44 Breaking news which I hope to keep updated as more becomes available.

Apparently a gun man opened fire in a gay club in Tel Aviv, Isreal this evening killing 2 and wounding up to 12 others.

According to Sky the shootings took place outside Cafe Noir in the liberal northern Isreali city which has a thriving gay community. I'm also picking up stories that the group that was targeted may well have been a youth facility for teenagers seeking support and that one young girl and a counsellor are the two who have died.

Police have ordered all the gay clubs in the city to close while they carry out a manhunt for the gunman.

22:56 Reuters are now confirming that it was indeed a support group for gay youths that suffered at the hands of the gunman. It was meeting in the basement of the Tel Aviv Gay and Lesbian Association building.

23:09 News via tweets from the streets of Tel Aviv is that the kids who are wounded are scared to call their parents as many of them are not out of the closet. The club was a safe place for them to discuss their sexuality. The deaths may end up being a double blow to the families of the victims.

23:30 Just flicked over to Sky News to watch Iain Dale and the paper review and the scrolling news is now reporting a third fatal victim of the incident. Confirmed by Assosiated Press.

23:48 Pictures from inside the room where the shootings took place are appearing WARNING GRAPHIC CONTENT.

05:00 Hundreds took to the streets of Tel Aviv last night as a memorial to the dead within hours of the incident. The march took place from the scene of the incident to another gay centre in Meir Park. Revital, one of the participants, told the press:

"The feeling is terrifying. We live in a bubble, believing that everything is fine. This is an act of pure unfounded hatred, which leads to the murder of children for being gays and lesbians. It's very sad knowing that it's still so."

Although the ultra-othordox Shas party has condemned the killings. Others are pointing the finger at their leaderships open hatred of the gay community as leaving an sense of distrust.

Kfir Lavi, coordinator of the "You have someone to talk to" hotline, referred to the incident as a terror attack.

"What we are seeing here is persecution. This attack was against the activity of youth in the closet, against friends and those who have doubts.

"Someone came in intentionally, knowing what was taking place there and who were the people present there, and carried out the attack. People feel this could have happened anywhere. The finger on the trigger was against sexual identity. They intended to hurt people because of who and what they are. There is a feeling of persecution, because following the attack all the places were closed at the police's order. There is a feeling of lawlessness."

So the community took the action they felt was appropriate and showed solidarity.

Time For Northern Ireland to Unite and Say No

'Ulster Says No!' was the slogan used by the Unionist groups across Northern Ireland at the start of the Anglo-Irish talks. Banners with that slogan or variations on the theme were displayed from the offices of Unionist controlled councils including Belfast City Hall.



Well the escalation of troubles and threats in Northern Ireland last night make this the opportune time to dust off that slogan. But this time instead of belonging to one community attempting to stand in the way of integration and steps towards harmony and reconciliation, it should be a united front. To have the leaders of both side in the community standing together saying no to the resurrection of violence. No to the reigniting of barricades and no to the threats of bombs across the province.



It is time for Ian Paisley and Gerry Adams to stand behind First Minister Peter Robinson and his Deputy Martin Maginnis as they stand together to say no. This no would be a positive no unlike that of the 80s which is why the figure heads of both sides from then, although taking a back seat now, need to stand there with the current heads of the Assembly.



Northern Ireland doesn't want the new generation to have to go through what I went through. We've moved on, seen improvements in our way and standards of life. This new threat of an escalation of attacks is going to take that new-found, long-awaited hope away. The generation who know little of that apart from what they read in history books should be allowed to only read about that history not live through a new chapter of it.



Time for the people of Northern Ireland in one united voice to say no.

Sad News Ahead of Polish Fixture in Belfast

Irish sports fans have a reputation of being friendly, loving to party and win or lose having a good time. It is therefore with sadness that I initially heard that there was trouble today in Belfast ahead of the football international against Poland.

Even through the troubles one thing that pulled the people together was the fact that nobody cared that George Best was a Protestant of that the other guy who shared his debut Pat Jennings was a Catholic. When they pulled on the Norn Oirish shirt none of that mattered. It was with sadness that when Neil Lennon brought a premature end to his international involvement it was due to sectarian attacks and threats on the Northern Irish captain, it was so out of character.

Yes when it came to which team the majority supported there was division, whether you were a Linfield/Glentoran supporter or Cliftonville pretty much marked you out. But on international day Windsor Park was always somewhat a haven of peace against all the madness going on around.

One things about today's attack is that it appears to have occurred as the result of Polish fans running rampage in a Weatherspoons on Bedford Street. The majority of the nine arrested were Polish fans. They are the co-hosts of Euro 2012 with Ukraine and one of the concerns when they were awarded the showpiece event by UEFA was the behaviour of their fans. That a riot should break out in Belfast which is still in ebullient mood after the Six Nations Grand Slam of last weekend when the Polish team and fans were in town doesn't look that good for 3 years time.

It's a sad day for the very vocal, very colourful, not Brazil but Norn Iron supporters. A sad day for football and for UEFA.