Nigel Griffiths - Calendar Boy! Eek! or Oops!

Oops!

It appears that Nigel Griffiths has mailed out a 2010 calendar to the constituents of Edinburgh South which only arrived on Monday, hours after he announced he was resigning. On it he claims he is "Here to help you 365 days a year".

Firstly the first first 31 were clearly not important enough so only 11 months of the calendar are of us. Plus in April when Gordon is expected to dissolve Parliament Nigel will only be here for you if you lucky enough to be enrolled at the international educational establishment he is heading off to in London. So therefore I reckon you may be lucky to have him for 62 days of that particular Calendar.

According to comments it is a glossy affair, as indeed were his 2009, 2008 etc calendars.

Some of the tweets about it were

Neil Pooran: "Bravely tragically, someone was out delivering leaflets for Nigel Griffiths last night" as he posted a picture of the soon-to-be ex-Labour MP's 2010 calendar sitting on his kitchen table.

Jennetw: "Just got 2010 calendar from Nigel Griffiths through my letterbox: 'Working all year round, not just at election time'. Apparently not!"

A Labour party spokesman is trying to fob it off as part of the normal MP communication. If that's the case where is my calendar from Michael Connarty? I suspect this fits into that grey area between communication and campaigning, I hope some mention of it is made on the Edinburgh South Labour election expenses return from the period from 1 January to the start of the campaign.

Edinburgh South Labour Excuses Starting Already

In 2005 there were a mere 405 votes between Nigel Griffiths and the Liberal Democrats in 2005. Labour had already lost the Scottish seat that takes up most of the Westminster constituency to Mike Pringle, he went on to increase his majority in 2007. Therefore these quotes from local Labour party members in Edinburgh South make interesting reading:

One Labour Party insider said: "This decision is just typical of Nigel. That is why he will leave no legacy in South Edinburgh. He has put the party in a very difficult position by making his entire campaign centre on his personality. He was a policy-free zone. If we lose Edinburgh South, everyone will know who to blame: Nigel Griffiths."

Another local member added: "He has obviously been working on this for some time, and has now dumped the local party in it before an election."

It appears as if Labour are already preparing the way for an inevitable loss of the seat. They are already apportioning blame. The picture above is a larger that life picture of the MP that adorns his constituency office. Hardly surprising with such iconography that it's corner position is known by some locals as the Kremlin.

So with Nigel out of the picture all eyes are turning to who? I think the only logical answer is Fred Mackintosh for the Liberal Democrats.

The Tories of course are yet again talking up their chances in this seat. But they did the same in 2005 and threw everything including the kitchen sink at this seat and came a lowly third. In 2007 even with the man who eventually became their list MSP who had stood in 2005 their vote on top of what they called strong performances by David Cameron and local activity only rose by 0.6% the Lib Dem vote rose by 2.9%.

I love the fact that Gavin Brown's website from 2007 is still live.

Instead of using bar charts that show data the Tories tried to use actual figures based on electoral calculus figures of a universal swing to count for Edinburgh South. Back then they said (actual return in May 2007 in red):

Share of the vote

Labour - 28.98% 29.1%

Conservatives - 26.14% 17.2%

Lib Dems - 21.39% 35.0%

SNP - Not worthy of mention 18.8%

Oops that appears a big ask for the Tories, especially when you consider that this Lib Dem vote in the smaller Scottish constituency is actually over 1000 more than Gavin himself managed in the last General election. Even the additional 5,000 or so votes that the Tories brought to the table leaves them over 1,000 short without counting in the fact that Lib Dem voters also vote in the additional parts of the constituency in their thousands. It's hardly a surprise then that Iain Dale in his seat by seat study didn't think his party would take South.

Therefore the Labour insiders quoted above are clearly preparing themselves for a Fred Mackintosh win on May 6th. It's not all down to Nigel being a policy free zone, it is also because Fred has been to parts of the constituency that haven't seen a Tory candidate on their doorsteps in recent times, if at all. The Tories as in 2005 think they can rely on their heartland parts to the West of the constituency leaving out some of the tougher areas.

Fred doesn't take the people of Edinburgh South for granted, nor does he neglect them. Indeed many of the people in locations overlooked by the Tories still remember how the Conservatives ruined Scotland and didn't care. So Annabel Goldie's recent comments about how David Cameron and reign in Downing Street without Scotland will just bring back echoes of that.

Nigel may well have dumped the local Labour party in it, although it would appear that the local people were already making their mind up that Nigel would have to go. He lost 6% of his vote in 2005 and that was before the additional scandals of the last few years.

So even Labour in Edinburgh South are looking towards a Fred Mackintosh win there by the sounds of things, lining up their excuses already.

Edinburgh South Labour Looking for Candidate as Livingston Announce Theirs

On the day that Edinburgh South Labour Party start the hunt for their candidate for a candidate to replace Nigel Griffiths MP, Livingston have announced that Graeme Morrice will be their third candidate in three consecutive Westminster Elections in 5 years. The former council leader will step up to the plate to replace the disgraced Jim Devine who was deselected before the party's 'star committee' over his expenses. He beat fellow councillor John McGinty, community education officer Gordon Connolly and Haackney activist Adenike Abimbola-Akindele to the selection. I don't rule out seeing the latter appear on the Edinburgh South shortlist, it would only be the sixth that I know of.

Meanwhile trade unionist Michael McCann has been unveiled as the Labour candidate in East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow, after former defence minister Adam Ingram (whose career had a rather big part in last nights Channel 4 Drama Mo).

Standing Down and Defection

First up the rumours that Edinburgh South MP Nigel Griffiths was going to step down have been confirmed. In what was the Lib Dems number 4 target seat across the UK and top against Labour the former deputy leader of the house was defending a 405 vote majority. Unlike John McFall who announced his retirement at 65, Nigel at 54 is announcing his next career as a director of an education institution.

However, even before his sex scandal on Remembrance Sunday in the House or the expenses claims Labour's popularity in the area was declining. That was evidenced when the former leader of the council Donald Anderson stood in the Holyrood seat in 2007 to try and reclaim it from Mike Pringle only to see a swing from Labour the Lib Dems as Mike increased his majority. I don't see how anyone this close to an election can eat into the growing popularity of the Liberal Democrat candidate Fred Mackintosh, which may have also been a reason for Nigel jumping before the electorate pushed him.

Last night Yousuf hinted that there would be a SNP defection to Labour. It led to both Jeff and Will speculating that is was only a councillor and as Jeff said that maybe someone that 'the SNP would be better off without'.

Well it appears that everyone is right, South Lanarkshire councillor John McNamee who the Herald describe as a rising star of the party is the defectee. He cites the dropping of GARL (Glasgow Airport Rail Link) and the inadequacies of the SNP at town hall levels. Though the local party are investigating him after "concerns were expressed over his expense claims and use of council travel allowances" as well as his "inappropriate behaviour" at a Strathclyde Fire Board event before Christmas.

Sounds to me like he is the ideal substitute for Nigel Griffiths, in that case. Hardly one for Yousuf to have been so joyful about.

Although with 5 retirements in the last five days is there a sign outside the Labour whips' office saying retirees queue here?

Are Labour Heading for Meltdown in the East of Scotland?

When STV voting was brought in the 2007 Scottish council elections it largely brought about an end of the Labour fiefdoms in the Central Belt at local level. However, the domination of their MPs was only broken from North Berwick to Falkirk by John Barrett for the Lib Dems in Edinburgh West. Is that about to change with almost all of their 11 MPs in the region implicated in some way or other in the expenses scandal?

The former leader of Edinburgh City Council Donald Anderson who stood unsuccessfully for Holyrood in Edinburgh South last time says he is worried. The Labour hierarchy is preparing for the possibility of losing 8 of their 11 seats which in 2005 would largely have been considered safe. The majority would in fact of been expected to survive a 10 percent swing but things are looking so grim that only the Prime Minister may have a safe haven.

The Chancellor Alistair Darling is not immune in his Edinburgh South West seat with his not tax deductible tax advise being tax deducted as well as his flipping. Nigel Griffiths was already precarious in Edinburgh South with his 405 majority from 2005. The West Lothian and Falkirk mob of Connarty, Devine and Joyce are all battling to quell public outcry about the way they have seen to be claiming expenses, in the case of Devine on goods already claimed for when Connarty bought them new.

Nigel's Brunette has Been Busy

There is breaking speculation that 5 other MPs from across 3 parties are worried that the Nigel Griffiths' mystery Brunette from last week's News of the World is about to expose them. The only party above suspicion would be the Ulster Unionists as Lady Slyvia Herman just doesn't appear to be the right gender for the mystery woman who appears to have been somewhat known by the red tops around the Westminster village.

Meanwhile the NotW having defeated a writ from the Edinburgh South MP go into more details about his 'unmemorable' session in his office of spending 38 minutes taking 27 explicit images. That these were apparently uploaded unto his laptop and then half an hour later possible as an aid to that bad memory he took another 40 minutes to take 44 more pictures at a second location. The NotW fortunately spared our one of this collection of images which they said left nothing to the imagination of the MP, we'll just have to imagine, or shudder not as the case may be.

Naughty Nigel

Oh dear. The News of the World carried news yesterday that Edinburgh South MP Nigel Griffiths appears to have had sex in his House of Commons with a brunette on Remembrance Day.

Today the Scotsman reports that although this may not be the only incident that the Edinburgh South CLP are standing by the man who held a 405 vote majority in 2005. The following quote from the paper shows how concerned they must be about the seat in the next 15 months.

"It is understood that party leaders believe Mr Griffiths has a solid personal vote in the Edinburgh constituency and this would be lost if someone else was brought in to replace him."

Is there enough after being almost wiped out 4 years ago in light of the weekends revelations? How will the Morningside set take to the news?

If Labour are really that worried about losing Griffith's personal vote rather than selecting a new candidate they must really be in a panic about losing another Edinburgh seat where the Lib Dems are a close second and already hold the closest equivalent Holyrood seat.

Update: I see that Iain Dale has added further from that paper that no self respecting Liverpool supporter has purchased for 20 years:

"I am, of course, ashamed my conduct fell below acceptable standards," Griffiths said, "I've little recollection of the evening, but that doesn't make it right."

So from an outright denial in the NotW to a recollection that he has no recollection but admitting that his standards had dropped (amongst other things it would seem), the question now must be why no recollection of that evening? Oh dear Nigel spinning untruths to half truths is just getting more and more embroiled in his own web.

Further Update: You'd have thought that being a man's best man at his wedding may have garnered some support. Not so for Nigel as Mr J. G. Brown of Westminster and North Queensferry whose official spokesperson refused to pass on his comments. Something about not being in Government. Must be bad if even Jade Goody (who was never a member of the government) warranted some words from the busy man attempting to fix our economy.

Hat Tip to Jess the Dog