Friday, January 04, 2008

Iowa - So What?

Of the last new incumbants of the White House three, Ronald Reagan, George H W Bush and Bill Clinton, failed to win the Iowa Caucus. And before that Jimmy Carter was beaten into second by uncommitted Democrats in 1976, whe then polled more than Barak Obama did yesterday.

So While Hillary may have come third on 29.5 percent she is still 26 percent better off than when her husband first contested a primary for a national election. Mind you even taking out Iowa Senator Tom Harkin from the 1992 version the Clinton's only topped in Iowa when unopposed in 1996.

However, both she and John Edwards find themselves about 8 points behind the Democrat victor Barak Obama. Which puts Edwards further back than this time 4 years ago than he was on Kerry on a similar level of support. But both are about 10 points ahead of where Howard Dean was before he imploded with his scream at a rally. So for the Democrats while there may be disappointment in the result it doesn't spell the end of the road.

For the Replubicans Mike Huckabee can hold up the fact that every winner of the Republican Causus in Iowa since 1976 has been a Republican candidate for the White House. Though not necessarily in the triumphant year.

Mitt Romney who came second for the Republicans acually polled more than the current Presidents father, from a more crowded 2008 field and is closer to the leader than the then Vice President was before he stormed to the White House.

As racers know it ain't necessarily how you come out of the blocks or gate but how you finish the race that is important. So early days yet but still too early to tell who will be the two choices come November.

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