Saturday, June 03, 2006

Statistics vs Alex Salmond

I don't know what they taught Alex Salmond in maths at Linlithgow Academy but whatever it was either Alex wasn't listening as he dreamt of being President of Scotland or else he has now forgotten it.

Today he has said:

"[The Liberal Democrats] are Labour's little helpers in Scotland and they should be clear that the longer they stay joined at the hip to Labour the more support they will lose."


Now I took three A Levels which all included a statistical element and then did a degree with a high statistical element so here are the figures.

1997 General Election
SNP 22.0% Lib Dems 13.0%

1999
FPP SNP 28.7% Lib Dem 14.1%
List SNP 27.3% Lib Dem 12.4%

2001 General Election
SNP 20.1% Lib Dems 16.4%

2003
FPP SNP 23.8% Lib Dem 15.3%
List SNP 20.9% Lib Dem 11.8%

2005 General Election
SNP 17.4% Lib Dem 22.6%

So therefore I make that since the 1997 election SNP down 4.6% Lib Dems up 9.4% on Wesminster Results. Also since the first Scottish Parliament vote in 1999 SNP down 4.9% Lib Dems up 1.2% First Past the Post and SNP down 6.4% Lib Dems down only 0.6% on the more competitive 2003 list vote.

Far from losing support Alex 617,260 SNP votes in 1997 have haemoraged to 412,267 last May and 365,359 Lib Dems in 1997 have become 528,076. If this is losing support I can't wait to see what sucess brings.

7 comments:

Soisealach said...

2003
FPP SNP 23.8% Lib Dem 15.3%
List SNP 20.9% Lib Dem 11.8%

2005 General Election
SNP 17.4% Lib Dem 22.6%

What this statistic merely reveals is that WESTMINSTER has become increasing INSIGNIFICANT to SNP supporters.

Cheers,

Stephen Glenn said...

Are you saying the say about the Scottish Parliament as well then looking just at those figures.

1999
FPP
SNP 28.7% Lib Dem 14.1%

2003
2003
FPP SNP 23.8% Lib Dem 15.3%

Soisealach said...

At the 2003 election, it is believed that approximately 6.23% of the previous SNP vote went to the left-leaning, pro-independence-supporting SSP (not to the unionist Lib Dem's as you would like us to believe in your vague analysis).

You cannot make vague assumptions on voting trends without looking at the whole picture, Stephen. In 2003, the SSP contested all constituency seats which altered the SNP outcome.

The point is those voters who vote for Independence-supporting parties will continue to do so.

Lib Dems are not a pro-Independence party.

The increase in votes the Lib Dems are seeing are for the most part, anti-Labour protest votes due in part to Blair's Iraqi policies.

Stephen Glenn said...

Hang on did the SNP not also stand up against the war on Iraq.

'The SNP believes that Tony Blair took the country to war on the basis of a lie. That is why our MPs made a case for his impeachment in the House of Commons. Failure to hold the Prime Minister to account over his dishonesty over the war in Iraq would set a dangerous precendent. In the interests of democracy and the rule of law the SNP will continue to demand that Tony Blair is held to account and we will introduce a motion of impeachment in the next Parliament'

From page 3 'If it Matters to You Make It Matter in May: SNP Manifesto

If the SNP are truly looking to overtake Labour shouldn't they also have taken on some protest votes against Blair's Iraq policies.

As for 6.23% going to the SSP that must be an over estimate as surely they went up by only 4.8%. Or are you tending to forget the 27,000 votes that went to Margot MacDonald. Which by my reckoning is about 1/4 of everything the SSP got last time and which the SNP look unlikely to claw back.

Soisealach said...

Stephen,

Voters who vote 'separatist' will continue to vote 'separatist'.

Unionists vote for unionist parties.

The core factor in the SNP (and SGP/SSP) vote is INDEPENDENCE, which cannot be casually removed from the equation when evaluating Scottish voting trends.

The small increase in Lib Dem vote could also be attributed to the large influx of English-borne natives who have moved recently to the greater Edinburgh regions to take advantage of the new jobs which the Scottish Executive have created with their increase in parliamentary staff and quangos (this assumtion is based upon the analysis of population and migration figures taken from the 2001 Scottish census, as well as the recent increases in voter registrations thoughout the constituencies, which supports this theory).

As for the SSP 2003 voting stats, they received 6.22 % of the constituency vote, and 6.90 % of the regional vote -- which directly corelates to the decrease in SNP losses for 2003. I agree that Margo McDonald created a statistical anomaly in the Lothians region -- and it is my personal hope that she continues to do so.

Whereas, in 2003, Labour lost approx 4 % of the vote, and the Conservatives and Lib Dems each gained 1 %, which is a rather typical fluxuation/variation when you observe all long-term UK-wide voting trends. Nothing phenomenal, really. Looking at what's been happening in recently by-elections north and south in the last year is really a no-brainer at this point.

So, don't get your party-horns and confetti out over this statistic just yet, Stephen.

Cheers,
Niniane Mackenzie

Soisealach said...

I should also add the the contributing factor to the SNP's loss in votes in 2003 was due in part to John Swinney's waffling on the INDEPENDENCE issue. Many SNP members literally tore up their membership cards and voted SSP as a protest to Swinney's weak leadership.

You will note that, as the re-instated leader of the SNP, Alex Salmond has regained those loss memberships as well as increased new support for the party.

Anonymous said...

I think that your cynical piece about Alex Salmond can be complacement. Alex Salmond won EVERY ballot box in Gordon of the part that is now within his Westminster constituency. So please don't dismiss that - we need to pour loads of resources or we lose the seat

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